A way-too-early look at the 2024 football season

Change is coming once again, as it always does every two years for the NHIAA.

A new two-year cycle begins in the fall of 2024, and while there will be change for football, it won’t be as drastic as some years have been, at least not at the Division I level.

The 21-team format that was implemented for the start of the last cycle will remain in place, although there could be some tweaks. The other three divisions will look a bit different when teams take the field for the preseason next August.

After a season that saw the top teams in each of the four divisions dominate for most of the year, the movement of teams between divisions could be a welcome change and help balance out some of those disparities that existed in 2023.

Here is a way-too-early look at the 2024 football season.

Division I

The same 21 teams will be aligned in the same three-conference format once again, but there could be a change to the playoffs. There was some discussion of cutting the number of playoff teams from 13 down to just eight, but as of this posting, a final determination was not known.

The hope here is that it stays at 13 teams, with the three conference winners getting a bye into the quarterfinals. While most of the games in the first two rounds of the playoffs were not close, what happened in 2022, with 10th-seeded Bedford pulling off four upsets on its way to the title, was an exciting conclusion to the season – and wouldn’t happen if the field was cut down to eight.

For this procedure, we’ll assume its still going to be 13 teams. So who will be the favorites going in? Don’t look much further than the teams that played in the final for the second straight year. Yes, Bedford and Londonderry will lose some key seniors, but both have the depth and dedication to the program to expect underclassmen to step up and prepare in the offseason.

Portsmouth-Oyster River and Pinkerton both lose a handful of seniors as well, many of whom will be hard to replace, but both programs had the numbers this year to put them on the same track as Bedford and Londonderry. They won’t be looking to rebuild, but rather reload.

Salem should be able to challenge those four for a top spot, as the Blue Devils had a lot of juniors and sophomores – and even a few freshmen – who contributed to this year’s quarterfinal team.

It’s hard to ever count out Exeter or Nashua North, while Bishop Guertin and Dover were both led by senior quarterbacks this year and will need someone to step up to fill the position. Spaulding has made it in the last two years, but loses some key players to graduation.

Windham and Alvirne have been on the rise the last two seasons while Merrimack and Concord could bounce back from tough seasons. Nashua South has had a young team the last two years and could take a big step.

Too-early predictions for 2024 playoff teams (13): Alvirne, Bedford, Bishop Guertin, Dover, Exeter, Londonderry, Merrimack, Nashua North, Nashua South, Pinkerton, Portsmouth-Oyster River, Salem, Windham.

Division II

Now things start to get interesting. Two years ago, D2 had 18 teams. Last year, with Lebanon only playing a JV schedule, it was 17. For 2024, it will be 16 teams with three new programs in the division and five moving out.

The three programs moving up are ones who have been in D2 before. ConVal and Kingswood, after petitioning down the last cycle, are moving back up, along with Trinity, which has been down in D3 since 2018.

Lebanon petitioned down for this cycle, while Laconia and Sanborn dropped down based on enrollment. Gilford and Hillsboro-Deering both saw their respective co-ops come to an end, lowering their enrollment numbers.

That leaves Manchester West, Hollis Brookline, Pembroke, Merrimack Valley, Kennett, Milford, Souhegan, Hanover, Plymouth, John Stark, Bow, Pelham and St. Thomas along with the three teams mentioned above.

The changes leave seven teams that were in the West Conference and six from the East. Does that mean Trinity and Kingswood would go to the East and ConVal the West? Or will Pelham, which is actually further east than some teams already there, move to the East and Trinity go to the West?

The other question yet to be answered will be the number of playoff teams for D2. Will it remain at eight or change? For this exercise, we’ll assume it’s going to be eight.

Regardless, it’s a fair bet that Pelham, Plymouth and Trinity will be among the top teams in the new D2. Bow was young this season, but gained a ton of experience and should make another playoff run. Despite big losses to graduation, Souhegan, John Stark and St. Thomas should be in the mix while Milford and Hanover are tough to ever count out.

Too-early predictions for 2024 playoff teams (8): Bow, Hanover, John Stark, Pelham, Plymouth, Souhegan, St. Thomas, Trinity.

Division III

So with all those teams moving out of D2, what does that mean for D3? It means the division is getting a whole lot bigger.

The division will have 13 teams, the largest its been since before the NHIAA added a Division IV in 2018, and for that two-year cycle, D3 had 12 teams.

Lebanon, Laconia, Sanborn and Gilford move down to join Epping-Newmarket, Monadnock, Stevens, Fall Mountain, Kearsarge, Inter-Lakes/Moultonborough and Campbell. Somersworth moves up from D4 based on enrollment and Newport petitioned up.

The question again is how many teams will make the playoffs. It’s been four the last few cycles, but back when the division had 12 teams in 2018-19, it was eight. Could the NHIAA split the difference, go with six, and like they do in D1, give the top two teams a bye? For this, we’re going to assume that.

Whatever ends up happening, expect Campbell, which has been in the last two finals, to be the favorite coming into the season. Sanborn, which was a playoff team in D2 last year, should also be among the top teams, along with two other newcomers, Somersworth and Newport.

Monadnock always finds ways to be in the mix and Inter-Lakes/Moultonborough has been a playoff team the last two years. Fall Mountain has been on the cusp of the postseason. Meanwhile, Lebanon will be ineligible in 2024 because it is petitioning down.

Too-early predictions for 2024 playoff teams (6): Campbell, Inter-Lakes/Moultonborough, Monadnock, Newport, Sanborn, Somersworth.

Division IV

With Somersworth and Newport taking their three-year hold on the division with them to D3, it might be a wide-open D4 next season.

Winnisquam, which had petitioned down last cycle, is now in the division based on enrollment, and Hillsboro-Deering comes down from D2 after its co-op with Hopkinton ended. Farmington-Nute will try to have a varsity team for the first time since 2019, joining Newfound, Raymond, Mascoma Valley, Franklin and Bishop Brady.

Raymond has been third in the division the last two years and could fill the void left by Somersworth and Newport to serve as the favorite next season. Bishop Brady has also been in the playoffs the last two years while Franklin was competing for a playoff spot a year ago and could be back in the mix.

Too-early predictions for 2024 playoff teams (4): Bishop Brady, Hillsboro-Deering, Raymond, Winnisquam.

Only 31 weeks left until the start of the preseason.