Bishop Guertin girls basketball once again the favorite as D1 playoffs get underway

Lani Buskey and Ricky Oliver had similar sentiments earlier in February when asked why every win down the stretch was so important to the top Division I girls basketball contenders.

The more you win, the better your seeding, the later on in the playoffs your team might have to face three-time defending champion Bishop Guertin.

“Seeding purposes, any chance you have to avoid BG earlier in the playoffs,” Buskey, the Pinkerton coach, said after her team beat Manchester Memorial on Feb. 7. “I hate that that’s the case, but that’s the case.”

After Oliver’s Salem team bounced back from a loss to Manchester Central with a win at Merrimack on Feb. 18, the Blue Devils coach had the same feeling.

“You don’t want to fall any further,” Oliver said. “That’s not where you want to be. You don’t want to have to play BG if you’re lucky enough to get to the second round.”

Neither the Astros or the Blue Devils will have to face the Cardinals in the quarterfinals; as the No. 2 seed, Pinkerton wouldn’t see Bishop Guertin until the final, while No. 5 Salem would if both made the final four.

While the undefeated Cardinals are the favorite going into the tournament, which starts Wednesday, there should be plenty of other entertaining games throughout the D1 playoffs.

Here’s a look at the preliminary-round games.

No. 9 Goffstown (11-7) at No. 8 Man. Central (12-6)

• Previous meeting: Central won 56-53 in overtime on the road on Feb. 5.
• The Grizzlies move up to D1 this season started with eight straight wins and were followed by six straight losses before Goffstown ended the regular-season with three wins in its final four games. One of the losses during that six-game skid was the overtime loss to Central, a game in which a game-tying 3-pointer in the extra session came up short. When Goffstown has been able to keep teams below 50 points, its 11-1; when the Grizzlies give up 50 or more, they’re 0-6.
• Central has been a solid defensive team all season, allowing an average of 42.3 points per game, and that average drops to 36.9 in the Little Green’s wins this year. When the teams met in the regular season, it was Jess Lewis who hit two 3-pointers in the final seconds of overtime to give Central the win. The Little Green might be shorthanded for the game, as Emily Greenwood missed Central’s regular-season finale with an injury.

No. 13 Nashua South (6-12) at No. 4 Man. Memorial (15-3)

• Previous meeting: Memorial won 71-53 at home on Dec. 11.
• While the Panthers have struggled at times on offense – they’ve averaged 36.7 points in their 12 losses – they had one of their highest outputs in the season-opener against the Crusaders. South lost four games this season by less than 10 points, including two down the stretch in which the Panthers went 4-4 to secure a playoff spot.
• The Crusaders have been one of the hottest teams in the division in the second half of the year, winning nine of their final 10 games. Memorial has been one of the more consistent offensive teams in the division, averaging 55.9 points per game, with six games over 60 points and three scoring 40 points or fewer.

No. 12 Londonderry (6-11) at No. 5 Salem (14-4)

• Previous meeting: Salem won 61-44 at home on Feb. 22.
• The Lancers struggled down the stretch, dropping seven of their final eight games, including four losses by nine points or less. During that stretch, Londonderry averaged just 41.9 points per game and never broke 50 points, including the loss to Salem in the regular-season finale.
• The Blue Devils have averaged 55.1 points per game this season, but in their four losses, Salem has been held below that total. In those games, Salem also allowed an average of 54 points, while the Blue Devils allowed just 42.4 points in their wins. After falling to Central on Feb. 15, Salem bounced back with wins against Merrimack and Londonderry to clinch the fifth seed in the tournament.

No. 10 Exeter (10-8) at No. 7 Windham (12-6)

• Previous meeting: Windham won 59-54 on the road on Feb. 22.
• The Blue Hawks turned their season around midseason after a six-game losing streak. Exeter was 7-2 in the second half of year, including the loss to Windham and another setback against Bedford. During that stretch the Blue Hawks averaged 60 points per game. Overall, Exeter averaged 55.5 points per game, and 61.2 points in the Blue Hawks’ wins.
• The Jaguars won four of their final five games, including the regular-season finale at Exeter. In three of the four previous seasons, Windham was the No. 12 entering the Division II playoffs, and made a big jump in its first season in D1. During the first half of the season, the Jaguars were winning with defense, allowing 43.7 points per game, while in the second half of the year, Windham’s offense averaged 50.8 points per game and scored 50 points or more in five of their final nine games.

No. 14 Nashua North (5-13) at No. 3 Bedford (15-3)

• Previous meeting: Bedford won 64-35 at home on Jan. 2.
• The Titans got into the playoffs by winning their final three games of the regular season, including a 10-point win over Trinity in the finale to clinch the last playoff spot in D1. North has been able to score points this year, averaging 47.1 points per game, but has allowed 54.8 points a game.
• The Bulldogs have been able to keep churning out wins despite an early-season coaching change. Bedford won 11 of its final 12 games, with the lone loss a 10-point setback at Pinkerton on Feb. 13. The Bulldogs have been one of the top defensive teams in the division, allowing an average of 41.7 points per game, and only allowed more than 50 on four occasions. Bedford was 1-3 in those games.

No. 11 Merrimack (9-9) at No. 6 Portsmouth (13-5)

• Previous meeting: Portsmouth won 47-35 on the road on Jan. 25.
• The Tomahawks had a tough finish to the regular season, going 2-6, with all of the losses coming against the top six seeds in the tournament. One of those set backs came against the Clippers, in a game where Merrimack had just nine points in the first half. Merrimack averaged 53.8 points in its nine wins, while it scored just 37.6 points in its losses.
• The Clippers hit a rough patch of their own, dropping three of their final four games going into the postseason. But one of those losses was an overtime defeat against top-seeded Bishop Guertin, who of the biggest challenges the three-time champs faced all year. Portsmouth was one of the best defensive teams in the division this year, allowing an average of 34.6 points per game.

Bye: No. 1 Bishop Guertin (18-0)

• The three-time defending champions will get the winner of the Goffstown-Central preliminary game in the quarterfinals on Saturday. The Cardinals defeated both on the road in February, beating Goffstown 69-42 on Feb. 21, and posting a 66-38 win over the Little Green on Feb. 8. Bishop Guertin has been the highest-scoring team in D1 this year, averaging 60.9 points and going over that 14 times. Only two teams from New Hampshire, Bedford and Pinkerton, held the Cardinals to fewer than 60 points.

Bye: No. 2 Pinkerton (17-1)

• The Astros, who were the runner-up a year ago, will take on either Exeter or Windham in the quarterfinals on Saturday. Pinkerton beat both big, winning at Exeter 71-39 on Jan. 11 and at home against Windham, 58-38, on Feb. 5. The Astros were the stingiest team in the division this year, giving up an average of 34.3 points per game. Only two teams – Memorial and Bishop Guertin – scored 50 points or more against Pinkerton, who also scored an average of 56.9 points a game.

Playoff Predictions

First-round winners: Goffstown, Manchester Memorial, Salem, Windham, Bedford, Portsmouth.

Final Four: Bishop Guertin, Manchester Memorial, Pinkerton, Bedford.

Championship: Bishop Guertin over Pinkerton.