Hold on tight, the D1 boys basketball tournament is about to get underway

There is one team that is viewed as the favorite heading into the Division I tournament.

And how could the Exeter High School boys basketball team not be the favorite? The Blue Hawks have to be after maneuvering through the regular season undefeated and beating many opponents in convincing fashion.

But funny things can happen in March.

“Exeter has set themselves apart,” Nashua North coach Steve Lane said after his team’s regular-season finale. “They’re the clear favorite, but if you get a disciplined Spaulding team, a disciplined Winnacunnet team, or a dangerous Dover team, there are some weapons out there who can knock people off. Even teams like (Nashua) South and us and Alvirne, we’re dangerous teams if things start to click at the right time.”

Lane has been on both sides of that during his time at North, as the Titans reached the semifinals as the 15th seed in 2015, only to fall in the quarterfinals as the top seed the next year.

A year ago, it was Dover making the surprise run, as the Green Wave pulled off three upsets to reach the D1 title game as the No. 11 seed.

Who will it be this year? Stay tuned.

The tournament gets underway on Tuesday with seven preliminary round games. Winners will advance to the quarterfinals on Friday, with the semifinals scheduled for March 13 and the championship on tap for March 16, both at the University of New Hampshire.

Here’s a look at the first-round matchups.

No. 9 Alvirne (11-7) at No. 8 Concord (11-7)

• Previous meeting: Concord won 55-52 on the road on Jan. 2.
• It’s been over two months since these two teams played, but the Broncos have been all over the map since then. Alvirne had a three-game losing streak, followed by a four-game win streak, then lost back-to-back games before finishing the year with four wins in five games. The Broncos rely on their outside shooting, and have averaged 63.5 points per game in their wins. In games in which Alvirne scores 50 or less, it’s just 1-5 this year.
• The Crimson Tide went 6-2 down the stretch, including key wins against fellow playoff teams Nashua South and Keene, to secure a home playoff game. Concord’s recent success started on the defensive end, as it has held opponents to an average of 51.6 points per game over that run. That number includes the Tide’s last three opponents, each of whom scored 48 points or fewer.

No. 13 Nashua South (8-10) at No. 4 Londonderry (14-4)

• Previous meeting: Londonderry won 65-43 at home on Jan. 25.
• The Panthers had a rough start to the season, as most of their top six missed time due to injury or illness, leading to an 0-4 start. South righted the ship by winning six of seven games midseason, but struggled down the stretch, including a one-point loss to Concord, a home loss to Winnacunnet that the Panthers led until the final three minutes and a loss at Pinkerton, which missed the playoffs.
• The Lancers will go as far as their defense can take them, as they enter the tournament having allowed an average of 47 points per game. Londonderry gave up 60 points once all year – in a 60-49 loss to Exeter – in its last 14 games, has allowed more than 50 just five times. The Lancers might need to be even better defensively in the playoffs, as they averaged just 51.2 points per game this year.

No. 12 Dover (9-9) at No. 5 Winnacunnet (14-4)

• Previous meeting: Winnacunnet won 57-34 at home on Jan. 25.
• The Green Wave went 5-3 in its final eight games to secure the 12th seed, one spot back from where they made their run a year ago. As long as Ty Vitko is on the floor for Dover, the Green Wave are a threat to pull off an upset, as he’s averaged over 20 points per game this year. In the first meeting with the Warriors, Dover’s 34 points were a season-low and well below its average of 56.9.
• The Warriors size across the board is one reason why they’ve been so good defensively all year. Winnacunnet has allowed just 40.8 points per game this year and only three teams – Exeter, Londonderry and Manchester Central – have scored 50 or more against the Warriors this year. Winnacunnet also has some experience making a playoff run, as the Warriors reached the semifinals two seasons ago.

No. 15 Goffstown (6-12) at No. 2 Salem (16-2)

• Previous meeting: Salem won 47-44 at home on Feb. 8.
• The Grizzlies clinched their playoff berth with a midseason stretch that saw them win four of five games. Since then, Goffstown is just 1-6, but in those seven games, the Grizzlies lost by an average of 6.5 points. During that stretch, Goffstown has allowed just 49 points per game, but the Grizzlies are only scoring 45.6.
• The Blue Devils are one of the few teams in the division that can win a number of ways, as they’ve been able to put up points at times (nine games of 60 or more) and defend (14 games under 50). Salem can also score from inside or on the perimeter, led by Zack Caraballo and Kyle Poulin. In the last 10 games, the Blue Devils have allowed an average of 46 points.

No. 10 Nashua North (10-8) at No. 7 Keene (11-7)

• Previous meeting: Keene won 56-48 on the road on Feb. 18.
• The Titans opened eyes earlier in the year, getting off to a 7-1 start after missing out on the playoffs a year ago. A young North team that has just one senior on the roster struggled in the second half of the year against the top teams in the division, including an eight-point loss to Keene at home. The Titans have been able to pull off some big wins this year, including at Portsmouth two weeks ago.
• It’ll be a historic night in Keene one way or the other, as the Blackbirds host a playoff game for the first time in over 10 years. The key number for Keene may be 50 – when the Blackbirds score more than that, they are 11-1 this year; scoring fewer than that, they’re 0-6.

No. 14 Merrimack (6-12) at No. 3 Spaulding (14-4)

• Previous meeting: Merrimack won 48-46 at home on Feb. 22.
• The Tomahawks did not look like they’d be here just a few weeks ago, as they were just 2-10 after a loss at Keene on Feb. 8. But the schedule lightened down the stretch and Merrimack pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the regular season when it beat Spaulding 11 days ago. If Merrimack is going to do it again, it will have to do so on the road, where the Tomahawks are 2-7 this year.
• The loss to Merrimack was the only blemish for the Red Raiders over their final eight games of the regular season. The 48 points scored by the Tomahawks was just the third time all year Spaulding had allowed at least that many, as it’s defense held opponents to 39.4 points per game.

No. 11 Manchester Central (10-8) at No. 6 Portsmouth (13-5)

• Previous meeting: Portsmouth won 72-68 at home on Jan. 15.
• The Little Green have dropped two in a row to the Clippers, including last year’s semifinal game. Central has turned things around after a start that saw it go 3-5, although just two of its wins all season were against playoff teams. Central averaged 62.9 points per game and when the Little Green can hold teams to 60 points or less, they’re 10-2.
• Eight games into the season, the Clippers were 4-4 and giving up 51.8 points per game. Since then, Portsmouth is 9-1 and giving up just 46.1 points on average. While the core that had won the last two division titles is gone, Portsmouth has the experience of what it takes to make a tournament run.

Bye: No. 1 Exeter (18-0)

• The Blue Hawks enter the tournament having had just five games this season decided by 11 points or less, and they’ve been held under 50 points just four times. In the final 11 games of the regular season, Exeter averaged 71.4 points per game and allowed 49.7. The Blue Hawks didn’t face Concord during the regular season, but defeated Alvirne at home 64-45 on Feb. 13.

Playoff Predictions

First-round winners: Alvirne, Londonderry, Winnacunnet, Salem, Nashua North, Spaulding, Portsmouth.

Biggest possible upset: Dover over Winnacunnet.

Final four: Exeter, Londonderry, Salem, Portsmouth.

Championship: Salem over Exeter.