Playoff Picture: Division I Boys Basketball (Updated Feb. 24)

The final week of the regular season is here and there is still plenty to be decided.

Here’s a look at what the tournament field for Division I boys basketball would look like if the postseason were to begin today.

Note: With the NHIAA’s 70-percent rule in place for the postseason, Division I will have 15 teams in the playoffs. Standings based off results reported to NHIAA.org and other media outlets. These are not official. 

Division I

Playoff field (record, rating, previous)

1. Bedford (16-1, 3.7647, 1st)
2. Pinkerton (16-1, 3.7647, 2nd)
3. Nashua North (16-1, 3.7647, 3rd)
4. Nashua South (13-4, 3.0588, 4th)
5. Bishop Guertin (12-5, 2.8235, 5th)
6. Exeter (12-5, 2.8235, 6th)
7. Windham (12-5, 2.8235, 7th)
8. Portsmouth (10-7, 2.3529, 8th)
9. Trinity (10-7, 2.3529, 9th)
10. Winnacunnet (9-8, 2.1176, 10th)
11. Merrimack (7-10, 1.6471, 11th)
12. Goffstown (7-10, 1.6471, 12th)
13. Alvirne (7-10, 1.6471, 13th)
14. Salem (6-11, 1.4118, 14th)
15. Concord (6-12, 1.3333, 15th)

Outside: Manchester Memorial (5-12, 1.1765); Timberlane (5-12, 1.1765); Keene (5-12, 1.1765); Londonderry (5-12, 1.1765)

Eliminated: Dover (5-13, 1.1111); Manchester Central (3-14, 0.7059); Spaulding (1-16, 0.2353).

Tiebreakers

• In a three-way tiebreaker, Bedford finishes ahead of Nashua North and Pinkerton thanks to a better rating against tournament teams.
• Pinkerton wins the tiebreaker with Nashua North thanks to a better rating against tournament teams.
• In a three-way tiebreaker, Bishop Guertin finishes ahead of Exeter and Windham thanks to a better rating against tournament teams.
• Exeter wins the tiebreaker with Windham thanks to a head-to-head victory.
• Portsmouth wins the tiebreaker with Trinity thanks to a better rating against tournament teams.
• In a three-way tiebreaker, Merrimack finishes ahead of Alvirne and Goffstown thanks to a better rating against tournament teams.
• Goffstown wins the tiebreaker with Alvirne thanks to a better rating against tournament teams.

First-round byes (changes in bold)

• No. 1 Bedford

First-round matchups

• No. 9 Trinity at No. 8 Portsmouth
• No. 13 Alvirne at No. 4 Nashua South
• No. 12 Goffstown at No. 5 Bishop Guertin
• No. 15 Concord at No. 2 Pinkerton
• No. 10 Winnacunnet at No. 7 Windham
• No. 14 Salem at No. 3 Nashua North
• No. 11 Merrimack at No. 6 Exeter

Remaining games

• Friday, Feb. 24: Alvirne at Goffstown, 6:30 p.m.; Portsmouth at Nashua South, 6:30 p.m.; Windham at Bishop Guertin, 6:30 p.m.; Spaulding at Manchester Central, 6:30 p.m.; Pinkerton at Merrimack, 6:30 p.m.; Winnacunnet at Nashua North, 6:30 p.m.; Timberlane at Trinity, 6:30 p.m.; Salem at Bedford, 7 p.m.; Exeter at Keene, 7 p.m.; Londonderry at Manchester Memorial, 7 p.m.

Scenarios

It’s been maybe nine years since I started doing these on a regular basis, and I can’t ever remember a division in any sport going into the final day with more variables than this. You not only could have a potential three-way tie for first, you might also have a potential five-way tie at the bottom, although that’s less likely. And what makes it even trickier is that, even though only two of those bottom teams is getting in, any team that’s tied for that final spot affects the seeding for the top three. Yikes.

Because of that, I’m going to do this a little bit differently, and hopefully it makes sense.

Seeds 1-3

No matter what happens Friday night, Bedford, Nashua North and Pinkerton will be the top three seeds in the tournament, but the order depends on a lot of things.

Here’s the easy stuff:

• If Bedford and North win, and Pinkerton loses, North would be the No. 1 seed because of its head-to-head victory over Bedford. Bulldogs would be No. 2 and Astros would be No. 3.
• If Bedford and Pinkerton win, and North loses, Bedford would be No. 1 because of its head-to-head victory over Pinkerton. Astros would be No. 2 and Titans would be No. 3.

Any tie that just involves Bedford and North or Bedford and Pinkerton can be broken with the head-to-head meetings. Because North and Pinkerton didn’t play, that’s what makes everything else a little more complicated.

Here’s the not-so-easy stuff:

• If North and Pinkerton win, and Bedford loses, the tiebreaker would mostly come down to the Memorial-Londonderry game. North beat both teams and would have a record of 11-1 (rating of 3.6667) against tournament teams; Pinkerton only played Londonderry, so if the Lancers win, the Astros would be 12-1 (rating 3.6923) against tournament teams and therefore win the tiebreaker.
• If Memorial wins, both teams would be 11-1 and the tiebreaker would then go to quality of wins against tournament teams, which would give the edge to North. The teams have eight common wins, but the remaining three for North (wins over Bedford, Nashua South and Memorial) would rate better than the three for Pinkerton (Exeter, Windham and Merrimack).
• Upset wins by Keene or Timberlane could throw the numbers off a little bit, but the tiebreaker will still hinge on the Memorial-Londonderry outcome.
• If all three teams win – or lose – Bedford would be the No. 1 seed, thanks to a better rating against tournament teams. North and Pinkerton would then rely on the tiebreaker listed above.

There are probably more scenarios that we could spend all day on, but there’s still a lot of ground to cover, so let’s continue.

Seeds 4-7

Going into Friday, we know these will be Nashua South, Bishop Guertin, Exeter and Windham. What order they end up is anyone’s guess.

• South controls it’s own destiny, so if it beats Portsmouth, the Panthers are the No. 4 seed.
• With Bishop Guertin and Windham playing head-to-head, we know there won’t be a four-way tie.
• After Friday, all four teams will have played each other. Bishop Guertin has the tiebreakers over South and Exeter; South has them over Exeter and Windham; Exeter has it over Windham.
• Bishop Guertin would finish No. 4 with a win and a South loss.
• South would still finish No. 4 with a loss and a Bishop Guertin loss.
• Exeter would finish No. 4 with a win over Keene and losses by both South and Bishop Guertin.
• Windham can’t finish higher than No. 5, and would need to win, have South win, and Exeter lose to be fifth. If that happened, Bishop Guertin would be No. 6 and Exeter No. 7.

Seeds 8-9

These belong to Portsmouth and Trinity, so their final games will be to determine where they meet in the preliminary round next week. The Pioneers host Timberlane on Friday in a game the Owls need to win to have a shot at the postseason, while the Clippers travel to Nashua South.

• They didn’t play during the regular season, so if they end up tied, the tiebreaker is rating against tournament teams. If both teams win, Portsmouth would win the tiebreaker; if both teams lose, the outcome of the Memorial-Londonderry game comes into play.
• If both Portsmouth and Trinity lose, and Memorial wins, the Clippers win the tiebreaker, again because of a better rating against tournament teams. If Londonderry wins, the tiebreaker goes to quality of wins, which would go to Trinity.

Seed 10

The one thing we know for sure: Winnacunnet will be the No. 10 seed. The Warriors lose the head-to-head tiebreakers with Portsmouth and Trinity, so if either lose, they’ll finish ahead of Winnacunnet. And no one from the group below can catch the Warriors.

Seeds 11-13

With Alvirne and Goffstown playing head-to-head on Friday, we know that the winner will be 8-10 and the loser 7-11. Meanwhile, Merrimack plays at home against Pinkerton.

• If Alvirne beats Goffstown, it will be the No. 11 seed regardless of what Merrimack does because it has the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Tomahawks. Merrimack, in turn, has the tiebreaker over Goffstown, so a loss by the Grizzlies drops them to No. 13.
• If Goffstown wins, and Merrimack loses, the Grizzlies will be No. 11, with Alvirne at No. 12 and Merrimack No. 13.
• Merrimack would need a win and a Goffstown win to finish at No. 11.

Salem could also finish 7-11 with a win over Bedford, but it would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to both Alvirne and Goffstown. The Blue Devils’ only shot at the No. 13 seed would be to beat Bedford and have Merrimack and Goffstown both lose, and have Londonderry beat Memorial.

Seeds 14-15

Concord is locked in at 6-12 and the winner of the Memorial-Londonderry game will also be 6-12 (with the loser being eliminated). Salem would be 6-12 with a loss to Bedford.

• A three-way tie between Concord, Salem and Londonderry would give the Lancers and the Blue Devils the final two playoff spots. Since Concord and Londonderry didn’t play in the regular season, rating against tournament teams is used to break the tie. Londonderry would finish at 2-10 (0.6667) and be the No. 14 seed, ahead of Concord and Salem at 2-11 (0.6154). Since those two would still be tied, the tiebreaker goes back to head-to-head, which Salem holds the tiebreaker and would be the No. 15 seed.
• A three-way tie between Concord, Salem and Memorial would give the Crusaders and the Crimson Tide the final two playoff spots. The three teams went 1-1 in head-to-head games, so the tiebreaker goes to rating against tournament teams. In this scenario, Memorial would be 5-7 (1.6667) and Concord would be 3-11 (0.8571) while Salem would be 1-12 (0.3077).
• If Salem beats Bedford to go to 7-11, Concord would get in as the No. 15 seed if Memorial beats Londonderry; a Lancers win would give them the final playoff spot over Concord.

Those seems the most likely scenarios, although Timberlane and Keene could also be 6-12 with upset wins over Trinity and Exeter, respectively, but at this point, my head might explode if I keep going.

If you’ve made it this far, congrats, and hopefully it makes sense. We’ll see when the dust settles on Saturday where things stand.