Three football teams for one postseason spot

It could be very simple to figure out the second spot in the Division II South Conference championship game: if Trinity beats St. Thomas on Saturday, it will play at Windham in the title game for the second year in a row.

But if the Pioneers lose, it could open the door for two other teams – Milford, Souhegan – depending on what each one does Friday night.

A Trinity win puts the Pioneers at 6-2, and even if Milford and Souhegan win, both would be 5-3, and out. Same if all three lose, as Trinity would still be a game ahead at 5-3.

But if Trinity loses and Milford beats Manchester West, the Spartans would likely get in, based on rating. Because teams play different non-conference schedules in Division II, the NHIAA breaks ties with the football rating, rather than head-to-head wins.

If Trinity and Milford both lose, and Souhegan beats Pelham, there’s a chance that the Sabers could jump past both teams and get the last postseason spot in the conference.

First, let’s take another look at how the NHIAA figures out the football rating. According to By-Law Article XX, Section 8, the football rating is figured out as follows:

To make things a little easier, and since all teams play eight games, let’s just focus on the total number of points.

If Trinity loses to St. Thomas and Milford beats West, both teams would be 5-3 and get 50 points for their own wins (10 points per win). Then it would come down to the points they get from opponents’ wins (two points for each win of a beaten opponent).

Trinity has wins over West, Pelham, Milford, Souhegan and Hanover. Going into Week 9, that’s a total of 24 points, and the Pioneers would pick up four more regardless of the results of the Milford-West and Souhegan-Pelham games because they defeated all four teams. That would give the Pioneers a total of 78 points when own wins and opponents’ wins are combined.

Milford has wins over John Stark, Souhegan, Pelham and Lebanon for a total of 24 going into Week 9, and if the Spartans beat West, that would be an additional two points. Milford would also get two points for the Souhegan-Pelham game, since it defeated both, and all that combined with points for own wins would give the Spartans 78 points.

There are three other games that would impact each teams’ rating: ConVal (1-6) at Lebanon (4-3); John Stark (2-5) at Sanborn (4-3); Hanover (1-6) at Plymouth (3-4). Milford would get two points each for a win by Lebanon and a win by John Stark, giving the Spartans either 80 or 82 points; Trinity would get two points for a Hanover win, giving it 80.

So if Trinity loses, Milford would need to beat West, and have either Lebanon or John Stark win and Plymouth win, or Lebanon, John Stark and Hanover win, to get into the postseason.

But what about Souhegan? If Trinity loses, the Sabers also have a slim chance to get in.

The Sabers have wins over Monadnock, Hollis Brookline, Sanborn and ConVal, which gives them a total of 22 points going into Week 9, and a win over Pelham this week would add four more points to that total. Added to its own wins, which would be 50 after beating Pelham (10 points per own win), that would give Souhegan 76 points.

Then, the Sabers would get two more if Sanborn beats John Stark (taking two away from Milford) for a total of 78, which would tie Trinity, if Plymouth beats Hanover. But if ConVal upsets Lebanon (again, taking two points from Milford) or Monadnock upsets Windham, Souhegan would get two more points, giving the Sabers 80 to finish ahead of Trinity, again if Plymouth beats Hanover.

If Souhegan and Trinity, or Milford and Trinity, were to finish tied in the rating, the Pioneers would win the tiebreaker because of their head-to-head wins over the Sabers and the Spartans. If just Souhegan and Milford end up tied in rating, Milford has the head-to-head win.

And of course, if Trinity takes care of business against St. Thomas, none of it matters.