Will history repeat itself? Or will top seeds have their way in D2 girls basketball playoffs?

If history tells us anything about the Division II playoffs, the John Stark High School girls basketball team might be in position to do something historic.

The division has seen the most parity over the last decade, with eight different programs taking home a championship in that time, including a different winner in each of the last six seasons. Only twice in the last 22 seasons has a program won back-to-back titles, with Hanover pulling the feat in Class I in 2004-05, and Souhegan doing the same in 2011-12.

But what might give the Generals a leg up on the competition this playoff season has more to do with what happened a year ago. In 2018, John Stark surprised the state, reaching the D2 championship game as the 13th seed in the tournament, where the Generals eventually fell to Hollis Brookline.

Three of the previous four D2 champions – including the Cavaliers last season – had finished as the runner-up the previous season, and as the No. 5 seed entering the tournament, John Stark has the cast to make it four out of five.

It won’t be easy, not in a division where three teams – Hanover, Lebanon and Kennett – tied for the top spot while going a combined 51-3. Not with a potential quarterfinal game – and rematch of last year’s semifinals – with Bishop Brady on the horizon, nor with HB looking to play spoiler out of the eighth seed.

The tournament gets underway on Tuesday with eight preliminary round games. Winners will advance to the quarterfinals on Friday, with the semifinals scheduled for March 5 and the championship on tap for March 8, both at Southern New Hampshire University.

Here’s a look at the first-round matchups.

No. 16 Kearsarge (8-10) at No. 1 Hanover (17-1)

• Previous meeting: Hanover won 54-29 at home on Jan. 30.
• The Cougars stumbled down the stretch, losing four in a row and five of six games at one points to see them tumble to the final playoff spot. Kearsarge did pick up wins in its final two games of the regular season, but those were against Stevens and Plymouth, which combined to go 10-26 this year. The 54 points scored by Hanover in the regular-season matchup was the second most allowed by Kearsarge this season.
• The Marauders own the longest winning streak in the division, having put together 16 victories in a row. The team’s only loss of the season was a one-point defeat at Lebanon on Dec. 11. Including that game, Hanover has had just four games decided by less than 10 points – a 48-39 win over John Stark on Jan. 18; a 51-42 win over Lebanon on Feb. 5; and a 62-54 victory against Kennett on Feb. 16.

No. 9 Merrimack Valley (11-7) at No. 8 Hollis Brookline (13-5)

• Previous meeting: None. These teams have met just twice in the last 10 years – in the preliminary round in 2010 and in 2018. HB won both meetings at home.
• The Pride enter after a regular season that saw them win four of their first six games, then lost four of the next six. Merrimack Valley captured five of its final six regular-season games, with the lone loss a seven-point defeat against Bishop Brady. The Pride have had an up-and-down year offensively, scoring 50 points or more eight times and going 6-2 in those games. Six times, they’ve been held under 40 points.
• The defending champs got off to a 10-2 start to the season, but have struggled against fellow playoff teams. The Cavaliers were just 4-5 against teams in the postseason this year, which including a stretch of three losses in a row against John Stark, Hanover and Bishop Brady in which HB allowed an averaged of 66.7 points per game. But HB almost the entire lineup back from last year’s championship and several of those players were around for the Cavs’ runner-up finish in 2017.

No. 13 Sanborn (9-9) at No. 4 Bishop Brady (15-3)

• Previous meeting: Bishop Brady won 74-67 on the road on Jan. 23.
• The loss to the Giants started the Indians on a skid, as they lost five in a row before winning their final three regular-season games to finish even. That game also saw Sanborn score its highest point total of the year by 11 points, as the Indians broke 50 points just seven times all season. During its losing streak, Sanborn allowed an average of 58.2 points; for the season, the Indians allowed an average of 46.3 points.
• The win over the Indians was the first in a nine-game winning streak that the Giants carry in to the postseason, and during that streak, Bishop Brady scored 70 points or more eight times. The Giants’ three losses came against each of the top three seeds by an average of 18 points. Bishop Brady has averaged 68.1 points per game this season, but has also allowed an average of 59.3, including 60 or more in half its games.

No. 12 Oyster River (9-9) at No. 5 John Stark (15-3)

• Previous meeting: John Stark won 57-23 on the road on Dec. 14.
• The Bobcats got off to a strong start to the season, winning five of their first seven games. But the schedule got a lot tougher down the stretch, as Oyster River went 4-7 over its final 11 games, with 10 of those defeats coming against D2 playoff teams. The Bobcats averaged just 25.4 points per game in those seven losses, and averaged 50.5 points in the four wins.
• The Generals had a great start and finish to the regular season, starting the year 6-0 and heading into the playoffs on a seven-game winning streak. In between, John Stark suffered its only three loses of the season – to Laconia, Hanover and Lebanon – by a total of 21 points. The Generals have been getting it done at both ends of the floor during their win streak, scoring 54.4 points per game and allowing 30.6.

No. 15 Bow (8-10) at No. 2 Lebanon (17-1)

• Previous meeting: Lebanon won 45-28 on the road on Dec. 21.
• The Falcons backed into the playoffs, with losses in their final two regular-season games. But the second of those games was an eight-point loss on the road against Kennett, one of four close games Bow had against the top teams in the division this season.
• The Raiders’ regular-season results look a lot like Hanover’s, with a 12-game winning streak to open the season and only four games decided by 10 points or less. Defense has once again been Lebanon’s calling card, as its allowing just 30.3 points per game, and just 28.2 in its last nine games. Only four teams have topped 40 points against the Raiders this year.

No. 10 ConVal (11-7) at No. 7 Laconia (13-5)

• Previous meeting: None.
• The Cougars are in the playoffs for the second year in a row after not making a postseason appearance since 2009. ConVal had been on a roll heading into the playoffs, winning five in a row, before dropping games against Hanover and Lebanon in the final week of the regular season. The Cougars’ magic number this year has been 40: when they scored 40 points or more they’re 9-0; when they score below it, they’re just 2-7.
• Since moving up to D2 three years ago, the Sachems have gotten better each year, building on last season’s playoff spot to get a home game this year. Laconia can put up points, topping 50 points five times this season, and the defense has been stingy at times, allowing 39.2 points per game.

No. 14 Coe-Brown (9-9) at No. 3 Kennett (17-1)

• Previous meeting: Kennett won 59-33 at home on Dec. 14.
• The Bears went 5-4 on the road this season, including wins at playoff-teams Spaulding and Bow. In Coe-Brown’s nine wins, it averaged 49.6 points, and in the nine losses, the Bears averaged just 36.8 points.
• The Eagles started the year with a 16-game winning streak, before falling to Hanover, 62-54, in their next-to-last game of the regular season. It was only the second time all season a team scored 60 points or more against the Eagles, who allowed 31.1 points per game this season.

No. 11 Pelham (10-8) at No. 6 Spaulding (13-5)

• Previous meeting: Spaulding won 50-45 on the road on Jan. 31.
• The Pythons have played just four games in February, and had mixed results, beating Sanborn and Timberlane by 18 and 33 points, respectively. But Pelham also lost to John Stark and Hanover by 22 and 37 points, respectively. Regardless of a win or loss, the Pythons might see history at Spaulding, as senior Olivia Gagnon is just six points away from the 1,000th of her career, which would make her the third Pelham player in three years to reach that milestone.
• For the Red Raiders, this will be the program’s first home playoff game since the 1996-97 season. This will be Spaulding’s first playoff appearance of any kind since 2014, and comes with the Red Raiders in their first season in D2. Spaulding’s regular-season win over Pelham was part of an eight-game win streak and a run that saw the Red Raiders get wins in 10 of their final 11 games.

Playoff Predictions

First-round winners: Hanover, Hollis Brookline, Bishop Brady, John Stark, Lebanon, Laconia, Kennett, Pelham.

Best-chance at a first-round upset: Sanborn over Bishop Brady.

Final Four: Hanover, John Stark, Lebanon, Kennett.

Championship: John Stark over Lebanon.